Year after year, the Pentagon releases annual report filled with biased facts and analyses aimed at hyping and denigrating those viewed as posing real threat to US hegemony. The newly 212-page annual Pentagon report, entitled “China Military power report” is but a piece of US propaganda aimed at spreading and hyping the so called “China threat” claiming that China has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads and they are in constant rising up to more than 1000 by 2030. Even if China does have 500 nuclear warheads, it is insignificant comparing to US size arsenal as its nuclear arsenal standing at about 5,800 nuclear warheads, in addition to the number of US strategic nuclear submarines, strategic bombers, and the number of warheads they carry are far higher than any other country in the world, including China. The global nuclear strategy of the US represents a real threat to the peace in the world when it comes to provide nuclear umbrellas and even nuclear sharing to some allies, ultimately exacerbating regional tensions, as it was the case in July, the US deployed a nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine to South Korea for the first time since 1980s prompting North Korea to fire later two short-range ballistic missiles into its eastern waters as a response to the US provocation. 20 years ago, the European respondents to a poll requested by the European Union consider the US and Israel, the two biggest threats to world peace. Over half of Europeans think two decades ago that Israel presents the biggest threat to world peace. According to the same survey, Europeans believe the United States contributes the most to world instability along with Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and North Korea. Another to new poll. The US presenting itself as the chief guardian of global democracy is seen around the world as more of a threat to democracy than even Russia and China.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi condemned Israeli bombing of Gaza in a phone call to Saudi foreign minister as going beyond the self defense, aimed at collectively punishing the residents of the Gaza Strip, calling for the immediate cessation of military campaign and return to negotiations. This Chinese statement apparently is contrasting with Russia’s ambiguous position being to generalities without clearly condemning punitive action against the Gazans. It is not clear if such Russian posture for not is due to Ukraine’s conflict, to Russian-Israeli tacit agreement over Syrian conflict or the pression of Jewish lobby inside Russia. In response to Chinese statement about Israeli self defense, looking closely to the very nature of the Israeli Palestinian conflict, the principle of self defense enshrined by the humanitarian international law, alleged by the Jewish state following Hamas’s attack does not apply in this case as the Israeli military action in Gaza has only one objective, maintaining the status quo, that is continuing indefinitely the occupation of lands stealed to Palestinian people and depriving them from having their own state inside recognized borders guaranteed by the international law. The self defense alleged by Israel to transform Gaza into rubbles can be compared with the false flag and the false humanitarian intentions used by the US and its European vassals to wage their bloody wars against the countries in the Middle East and Africa over the past two decades. In reference to Chinese foreign minister judging that ongoing Israeli onslaught against the Gazans is going beyond the self defense, one can say the same thing about the US and its European vassals by having a plot in mind when they engineered Libya’s by using the so called the responsibility to protect by imposing NO FLY ZONE whose declared aim was the protection of civilians in Benghazi purportedly repressed by Libyan regime but its hidden objective was to give free hand to the US and NATO to destroy the north African nation divided since like Yugoslavia into warring tribal entities and to murder its leader Muammar Kaddafi.
China could help Niger overcome the sanctions imposed by the ECOWAS, threatening the African nation by military action following the overthrow of France’s puppet Mohammed Bazoum. Contrary to former colonizer of Africa, China has no colonialist intentions in this continent and consequently it is not imperialist power aimed at stealing and pillaging the natural resources. China’s main objective is to business and to build infrastructures. While the USSR which served as inspiring model both for China and other colonized people all over the world in particular Ho Chi Minh who has deepened his understanding of Marxist Leninist theory in Moscow’ Lenin International School in the 1930st supported African movements of liberation in the name of internationalism and proletarian brotherly. Patrice Lumumba’s university in Moscow today is the most telling legacy of the USSR’s support for African people considering Russia today as the main supporter in their struggle against neo colonialism. This is not the case of Chinese African policy. That is why one can see during popular protests in Mali, Burkina Faso and today in Niger Putin’s photo waved and pro Russian slogans shouted by the protesters. That was highlighted recently by the remarkable speech ushered during the Second Summit Russia Africa in Saint Petersburg by the Young president per interim of Burkina Faso Ibrahim Troaré calling his Russian counterpart for support to overcome the sequels of neo colonialism in his country. While Russia fully support Mali at the Security Council by vetoing a resolution presented by France and the United Arab Emirates aimed at prolonging sanctions against Mali, China abstained, why ?
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called the behavior of unidentified balloons over the United States an example of how China and Russia are increasing intelligence against the countries of the alliance.
On Monday,the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin,said the US has illegally flown its high-altitude balloons over Chinese airspace more than 10 times without Chinese authorities’ permission since the beginning of 2022 calling the US the world’s biggest « Spying Empire » This statement was made following the strike of Chinese civilian unmanned airship used mainly for meteorological research purposes which was taken down on February 4. In fact, the US is the world’s largest surveillance and reconnaissance country, with the largest global spying network, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said.
Throughout 2021, U.S. and European “warships and planes carried out more than 2,000 close spying operations aimed at China,” including at the “coastal area of the Chinese mainland.” Although lavishly funded Western news agencies mysteriously found minimal opportunity to report on the incidents, the reader of the Asian press could have learned that Western “strike groups” in “the South China Sea” nearly doubled their activity since 2020—repeatedly to the protest of the Chinese and in fact most of Asia, though to the enthusiastic celebration of the Western liberal and humane press.
Since 2016, France has mobilized support for a European presence with annually rotating forces which have expanded with participation from a growing number of countries…The German frigate Bayern was deployed in the Indo-Pacific from August 2021 to February 2022 to conduct operations…and exercise with the navies of Australia, Singapore, Japan and the United States. Germany’s contribution was considered a key decision in forging French-German unity on building a permanent and effective European military presence in the Indo-Pacific. The United Kingdom has also delivered significant contributions to Indo-Pacific defense, decoupling a carrier strike group in 2021 and two warships permanently in 2022.
Recently, an unmanned US boat used to gather data underwater was discovered in the waters of Namibia. Local media generally believe that this unmanned boat is actually a US spy ship. The US has also frequently sent aircraft and warships to conduct close-in reconnaissance on China, with 657 flights in 2022 and 64 flights in the South China Sea in January this year alone.
The US’ National Security Agency (NSA) monitors the content of text messages and calls of political leaders in Germany, France, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and other European countries. The US secretly installed monitoring equipment in nearly 100 of its embassies and consulates abroad to steal secrets from the host country.
In 2018, the United States government has declassified its Indo-Pacific strategy initially set to be released to the public at the end of 2042. The strategy was initially devised throughout 2017, going on to be approved and enforced by President Donald Trump in 2018 shortly after the US National Defense Strategy was finalised. At its heart, the strategy highlights a deep concern with China’s rising influence in the Western and Central Pacific and plans to deal with an increasingly belligerent North Korea, while seeking to use its South-East Asian allies to contend with China and North Korea and to strengthen India to counter Chinese military power.
Countering China in the South China Sea
The strategists highlight China’s growing dominance in the Indo-Pacific and consider Beijing as is the United State’s primary adversary and strategic opponent in the area. While the document does not mention the South China sea dispute, it reflects a concern over China’s claims there and in other parts of the Western Pacific. The strategy to counter China aims to build US capabilities until they are “capable of, but not limited to” denying China control of the air and the sea in the “first island chain”, referring to a string of Pacific islands surrounding China that include Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. China claims most of these waters. Second, it emphasizes the strategy emphasizes the need to defend the first island chain, and dominate all areas outside it.
disputed zones in the South China Sea
A US Navy oceanographic survey
Since last September, a US Navy oceanographic survey ship has been conducting extensive activities in a large area of the South China Sea to collect underwater geographical and hydrological data to support its submarine warfare in the region against China.
This situation also drew attention from some military observers after a US nuclear-powered attack submarine struck an unidentified underwater object in the South China Sea earlier this month, which again highlighted the US Navy’s need to learn more about the region.
The USNS Mary Sears (T-AGS 65), a Pathfinder-class oceanographic survey ship, entered the South China Sea on September 26 and started extensive surveys. From October 1 to 4, the ship operated in waters south of China’s Hainan Island, from October 5 to 9, it approached the coastline of Vietnam, and by Sunday it had arrived in waters near the Nansha Islands. The Pathfinder-class oceanographic survey ship is specialized in the detection and surveying of underwater terrain, meteorology and hydrology.
The USNS Mary Sears (T-AGS 65)
While the ship seems to be conducting scientific research, its true mission is to support submarine and anti-submarine warfare, the USS Connecticut, a Seawolf-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, struck an underwater object in the South China sea on October 2.
the USS Connecticut, a Seawolf-class nuclear-
This accident means the sea map the submarine was using was outdated, and the US Navy was conducting scientific research to draw underrates maps with the mission to support submarine and anti submarine warfare and help navigate friendly submarines or place detection device to locate hostile submarines.
Countering China and Russia in the Middle East
President Joe Biden’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance Lt. Gen. Ronald Clark, who spoke at the Association of the U.S. Army’s annual conference Oct. 12 emphasized the challenges of strategic competition with Russia and China to American interests, including nonmilitary events taking place across the Middle East. The major challenges to the command’s operations are China, Russia, Iran and “violent extremist organizations around the world,” he said. But the commander primarily cited Russia and China, which he said are making moves in the Middle East to “set conditions for future operations.”
Both nations blur the lines between competition, crisis and conflict. While it falls short of actual conflict, Clark said these actions are a part of strategic competition and will shape future conflicts in the Middle East and beyond. “Events in one theater will spill over — undoubtedly — to another,” he said. “Bottom line: All of our competitors are setting conditions in the [command’s area of responsibility] right now that we need to respond to.”
Middle East map
For example, China engages in unrestricted warfare, which consciously expands the battlefield from traditional domains such as land, air and sea to social spaces, politics, culture and economics. An important piece of that in the Middle East is the Belt and Road Initiative, which consists of a number of economic investments by the Chinese government and Chinese-owned companies in foreign countries. “The Belt and Road Initiative touches virtually every country in [the command’s area of responsibility],” said Clark, pointing to a $300 billion investment by a Chinese-owned company into the port of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. China continues to import massive amounts of oil from the Middle East, helping Iran build a new export facility that will allow it to continue pumping oil past the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz Strait
Meanwhile, Russia is practicing its own form of hybrid warfare using nonmilitary means to create an operational environment where a smaller military force can come in and achieve its objective, Clark said. For example, a 2017 deal allowed Russia to expand the Port of Tartus in Syria, and it can now hold up to 12 nuclear-powered ships or submarines, he added. “That now allows the Russians — if they want to — to project power into the Mediterranean and into Eastern Europe,” he said.
Syria’s Tartus port
The US Central command’s area of responsibility is vast. It includes 21 countries that make up more than 4 million square miles and are home to 550 million people in 22 ethnic groups speaking 20 different languages.
Oil locations in the Middle east
Importantly for American interests, he added, it’s also home to vast oil reserves. Nearly 30 percent of the petroleum and crude oil products from around the world flow through three chokepoints that fall under the command’s purview. Clark pointed to when the supercargo ship Ever Given recently clogged up the Suez Canal for days as an example of the importance of those chokepoints. That incident disrupted 12 percent of global trade with an estimated cost of $9 billion.
The brainwashed western elitism depicts the United States of America as the first and accomplished democracy in the world. This cliché becoming with time commonplace has been perpetuated through educational system chiefly in law schools dedicated to form and train the future on one side and political propaganda used as a powerful tool of manipulation by the wealthy and the ruling class to deceive the masses and to orient the choice of voters, propagandizing for subservient conservative and liberal candidates and parties who, once elected,would legislate in the best interests of big business and the monopolies.
President Biden will convene a mix of established democracies and “emerging” ones to summit for Democracy that will take place December 9 and 10. Biden had promised such an event early in his presidency as an answer to Trump and what he and other Democrats see as his predecessor’s undermining of democratic values and American leadership. The two-day gathering of world leaders, human rights groups and others will take place just short of the first anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob seeking to overturn Biden’s election victory and install Trump for a second term. Putin will be invited to the summit but it is not clear whether Biden will include other leaders such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or Hungary’s Viktor Orban.
Biden’s summit for democracy against Trump’s coup
Both summits will bring together heads of state, civil society, philanthropy, and the private sector to “speak honestly about the challenges facing democracy so as to collectively strengthen the foundation for democratic renewal. On his European trip, which was capped by a summit with Putin, Biden said he wanted to prove that democracies can deliver better results for their people than autocracies, despite the sometimes slow and messy process of reaching compromise.
CHINA’S « AUTHORITARIANISM » IN THE CORSSHAIRS OF THE SUMMIT FOR DEMOCRACY
The Summit for Democracy will galvanize commitments and initiatives across three principal themes: defending against authoritarianism, fighting corruption, and promoting respect for human rights. The event is likely to be framed in large part as an attempt to unify democratic governments in opposition to China and its efforts to spread its economic, political and military influence. Biden focused much of his first foreign trip as president on a push to confront China. Meeting with the leaders of Group of Seven democracies and with members of the European Union and NATO in June, Biden sought to rally those alliances to confront Beijing. China is also mentioned specifically in Biden’s original campaign document pledging to hold the summit, in particular Beijing’s efforts to restrict free speech through control of technology and social media. “Technology companies — which benefit from the fruits of democracy — should make concrete pledges for how they can ensure their algorithms and platforms are not empowering the surveillance state, facilitating repression in China and elsewhere,” Biden urged on his campaign website.
The event was initially envisioned as a marquee gathering, probably in Washington, where democratically elected leaders would symbolically stand together in defense of free elections, free speech and other shared values. Biden has often described his view of foreign affairs as a battle for the future between the world’s true democracies and authoritarian regimes.
“When authoritarian regimes point out our imperfections, I think that misses the point, because we’re not claiming perfection,” the official said. “The summit is not about perfection. What we’re saying is, we don’t shrink from scrutiny. We are always trying to use our system to improve ourselves, and because of that, I think it gives democracy a kind of powerful resilience that other systems don’t have.”
US and China’s flags
To be continued
PART II Why should be rejeted the binary vision of democratic West and authoritarian China ?
On September 24, President Biden hosted Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of Japan at the White House for the first-ever in-person Leaders’ Summit of the Quad. A the top of their agenda the COVID-19 pandemic, infrastructure; the climate crisis; emerging technologies, space, and cybersecurity; and last but not least, fellowshi consisitng of cultivating 100 selected students(25 from each QUAD member) to be trained in the USA universities.
Biedn,Modi,Morisson and Suga meeting QUAD summit in Washington September 2021
THE QUAD, CONTINUATION OF THE TRUMAN DOCTRINE OF CONTAINMENT OF COMMUNISM
The father of the containment is not Truman nor John Foster Dulles but George Kennan who was considering the soviet union and the communism as evil and conspiratorial trend within “liberal democracy” For that reason, Kennann had preached continued fight against the USSR and communism by confronting the Russians with counterforce at every point and to block the Soviet Union with “superior force and with “unassailable barriers in its path”
The policy of containment was supported and implemented in 1947 by the Truman administration asserting the need to “act and act decisively” to sustain the open Door policy. As the direct descendant of Churchill militancy anti Russia “Iron curtain” speech of march 1946, the Truman doctrine blamed the Soviet Union for the troubles of the world and announced the determination of the united States to halt the spread of revolutionary radicalism. As a result, Truman administration had elaborated a program to promote “trouble on the other side of the Iron curtain” Consequently, as Acheson revealed to the Congress, the cold war was inevitable.
George Kennan(Left),father of the containment and the politician who coind the term of « Cold war »
The QUAD is a new military alliance targeting China in the Asia Pacific region like NATO set up in 1949 with the main objective: containing the Soviet Union in Europe. Long after the triumph of the Revolution in China, a large part of the American people refused to accept the result. After the fall of China to communism in October 1949, Truman Doctrine was activated to contain the new born communist revolution in China. The USA initiated the Korean war in 1950 with the hope to put a break to the rising tide of revolution in Asia. The snowballing effect of communist triumphes might make Thailand and Burma relatively easy conquests. Since Indi China is strategically the key to all South East Asia. A communist sweep in asia would tend to « paralyse the defense of Europe ». In West europe the feeling might well spread that resistance to the Red » wave of the future » was hopeless. Thus far the Truman Doctrine had been enforced, but il had been a dismal failure in east Asia. these considerations were sufficient to induce resolute action in Korea.
Truman doctrine of containment of communism
QUAD, US TOOL TO CONTAIN RISING CHINA IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION
The Quad has been described as a U.S.-led project, an alliance, an axis of democracies, a security diamond to contain China. The story of the QUAD has begun in spring 2007 by quadrilateral discussion followed later by a naval exercise in the fall of this year. In 2006, Japanese prime ministerial candidate Shinzo Abe made a more limited but focused case for a values-based foreign policy and closer ties with Australia and India. Once Abe won the election, his foreign minister Taro Aso reiterated this call in a speech laying out the new government’s foreign policy. In December 2006, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Japan. In a joint statement, he and Abe noted “the usefulness of having dialogue among India, Japan and other like-minded countries in the Asia-Pacific region on themes of mutual interest.” Then, reports emerged that U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, despite hesitation in some quarters in the Bush administration, endorsed the idea of a quadrilateral involving Australia, Japan, the United States, and India — in addition to the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue that the first three had started in 2002. He discussed it with Prime Minister John Howard on a visit to Australia in February 2007. When Howard visited Tokyo the next month, he and Abe highlighted the four countries’ shared democratic values. A few days later, the Indian foreign minister visited Japan, and then, in April, Aso traveled to India and Abe to Washington. The Australian participant later described it as an “informal meeting … to look at issues of common interest” (like disaster relief) involving countries that “share some values and growing cooperation in the Asia-Pacific.”
Dick Cheney, G.Bush’s vice president
The meeting might have been exploratory, but observers thought it was or could be much more. Australian members of parliament asked if this was a security arrangement, an alliance, or an expansion of the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue. Indian lawmakers wanted more details on this “four-cornered dialogue.” Advocates and critics suggested it was an “Asian NATO” to constrain China.
There was still momentum behind the Quad. When Abe visited India in August, he didn’t explicitly mention it, but told the Indian parliament, “the Confluence of the Two Seas is coming into being.” He spoke of a “broader Asia” that would also incorporate Australia and the United States. The quadrilateral found more explicit mention in the United States that fall, when presidential candidate Sen. John McCain wrote that he would “institutionalize” the Quad
John Mc Cain
QUAD, MILITARY ALLIANCE DIRECTED AGAINST CHINA IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION
Before the recent meeting of the Quad, both the United States and the Indian sides denied that it was a military alliance, even though the Quad countries conduct joint naval exercises—the Malabar exercises—and have signed various military agreements. The September 24 Quad joint statement focuses more on other “security” issues: health security, supply chain and cybersecurity.
QUAD Malabar exercice
Before the Quad meeting in Washington, the United States and the UK signed an agreement with Australia to supply eight nuclear submarines—the AUKUS agreement. Earlier, the United States had transferred nuclear submarine technology to the UK, and it may have some subcontracting role here. Nuclear submarines, unlike diesel-powered submarines, are not meant for defensive purposes. They are for force projection far away from home. Their ability to travel large distances and remain submerged for long periods makes them effective strike weapons against other countries.
The AUKUS agreement means that Australia is canceling its earlier French contract to supply 12 diesel-powered submarines. The French are livid that they, one of NATO’s lynchpins, have been treated this way with no consultation by the United States or Australia on the cancellation. The U.S. administration has followed it up with “discreet disclosures” to the media and U.S. think tanks that the agreement to supply nuclear submarines also includes Australia providing naval and air bases to the United States. In other words, Australia is joining the United States and the UK in a military alliance in the “Indo-Pacific.”
AUKUS,new military alliance with Australia against China
Behind the rhetoric about the Indo-Pacific and open seas is the U.S. strategic vision to project its maritime power against China and contest for control over even Chinese waters and economic zones. This is the 2018 U.S. Pacific strategy doctrine that it has itself put forward, which it de-classified recently. The doctrine states that the U.S. naval strategy is to deny China sustained air and sea dominance even inside the first island chain and dominate all domains outside the first island chain. .
The U.S. is using the other members of the Quad as mere tool to regain its strategic and global dominance. The United States wants to use the disputes that Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia have with China over the boundaries of their respective exclusive economic zones. The same strategy used by the United States to use European continent as bullwark against the Soviet Union. That is why old colonial UK, France, Germany and today the United States all have large aircraft carriers: they are naval powers who believe that the gunboat diplomacy through which they built their empires still works. The United States has 700-800 military bases spread worldwide; Russia has about 10; and China has only one base in Djibouti, Africa.
On Wednesday September 15, in a virtual press conference with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, US President Joe Biden announced the formation of a new Indo-Pacific security alliance with the UK and Australia. The so called security alliance named « AUKUS »Washington’s hottest acronym abbreviations for Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, is but a new military pact conceived and set up by imperialist and hegemonic power flanked by two satellites Anglo saxon proxies aimed at containing China’s rise to global power. AUKUS is Washington’s latest NATO-like alliance in the Asia Pacific region alongside other alliances, the US-Japan and US-South Korea alliances and the Quad including India, not US ally but a political and geopolitical challenger to China.
AUKUS, the new military pact could endanger the Asia Pacific region as Australia will become a nuclear power by acquiring 9 nuclear powered submarines. The centrepiece of the deal announced involves Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines and abandoning a deal with France,tearing up an agreement with French Naval group to build conventionally powered submarines. Under the arrangement, the United States will divulge its most-guarded naval nuclear secrets to Australia. The details and inner workings of the alliance will be nutted out over the next 18 months. Playing on words by alleging the deal does not extend to nuclear weapons, only to the propulsion system, as the future nuclear-powered submarines would be able to carry nuclear weapons aboard.
Allied naval presence is expected to increase north of Australia, including in the contested South China Sea, as part of a coordinated tricontinental push against Beijing territorial aggression. Australia, the United States and Britain are expected to reorient their submarine and warship fleets to counter China’s increasing regional presence.
The new military pact would allow a far greater presence of American troops on Australian soil as more US warplanes of all types, including bombers, will come to Australia, along with a larger presence of maintenance crews and military logistics personnel.
Beijing vigorously reacted denouncing the new military as AUKUS deal supplying Australia with nuclear submarines « seriously damages regional peace and stability, intensifies the arms race, and undermines the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons » A senior Chinese military expert commented on the new nuclear deal considering only nuclear-armed countries have nuclear submarines, and a nuclear submarine is one tasked to launch a second-round nuclear strike in a nuclear war.
Aware of the danger from the new military pact New Zealand, member of the Five Eyes Alliance, wants to stay away from it, especially Australian nuclear submarines. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Thursday that Australia’s new nuclear-powered submarines would not be allowed in New Zealand’s territorial waters under a long-standing nuclear-free policy.
The new military pact will benefit directly the merchants of death in US and UK and indirectly a leading French company Thales based in England. In UK, BAE System is currently building a fleet of Astute- class nuclear powered attack submarines and designing a fleet of Trident ballistic missile submarines for the Royal Navy at its Barrow yard in northern England. The company has a substantial stake in the Australian shipbuilding industry in part due to Canberra’s 2018 selection of the companies Type 26 frigate for anti-submarine duties. Thales, a great success, a French company has a very large workforce in the UK working for submarine industry. After Australia has scrapped the French deal, the company was quick to announce in a statement on Sept. 15 that its business outlook would remain untouched by the Australian decision to drop Naval Group.
This image made from a teleconference provided by the Vietnam News Agency (VNA) shows the leaders and trade ministers of 15 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries pose for a virtual group photo in Hanoi, Vietnam on Sunday, Nov. 15, 2020. China and 14 other countries have agreed to set up the world’s largest trading bloc, encompassing nearly a third of all economic activity, in a deal many in Asia are hoping will help hasten a recovery from the shocks of the pandemic. (VNA via AP)
THE BIRTH OF A MEGA FREE TRADE PACT : THE REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP(RECEP)
During a virtual summit was created on Sunday November 15, a mega trade bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) including the 10 ASEAN member states, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The 14000 page agreement contains 20 chapters, dealing with tariffs on trade among member countries, including removing barriers for investment and travel. The RCEP is the world’s largest trade agreement, with a combined population of 2.27 billion, $26 trillion in GDP, and $5.2 trillion in exports. The agreement could boost exports among member countries by 10.4% by 2025, investments by 2.6ù, and GDP by 1.8%.
The first steps that will be implemented by the agreement consist of removing tariffs on 90 percent of merchandise immediately after its implementation, and zero tariffs in 10 years, adopting a « negative list » for investments in manufacturing, agriculture and several other sectors, including arrangements for visas and money transfers.
The RCEP, as an integrator of regional economic and trade rules, will be a recipe allowing the countries at different development stages to engage in a trade deal and trade liberalisation for its diverse groups of its members but also it will become the platform to pursue more bilateral trade deals and resolve trade and other disputes.
Because of the very diverse political systems of its members, the implementation of the agreement will also face challenges and risks not only from internal disputes between its members but also from US and EU meddling.
Mainstream American outlets described the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, one of the world’s largest regional free trade pacts, as a “challenge” to US trade. Biden’s administration would probably riposte through the US participation US participation in the Asia-Pacific multilateral trade mechanism, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Likely,the US and EU will exploit internal disputes between the RECEP’s members in order to disrupt the process, by meddling for example in trade disputes between Japan and South Korea and igniting diplomatic tensions between China and Australia accused for its role in helping the US attack on Beijing. To increase confrontation, the US and EU will try to sow the discord in some member countries and divide the 15 members at the same time.
Even before Donald Trump assumed office, the US was trying to contain the rise of China by initiating negotiations for the TPP, which was widely viewed as a strategy to isolate China. Although the Trump administration withdrew from the TPP, it has continued by stirring up tensions in the South China Sea.
Joe Biden, who pushed for TPP might try to disrupt the RCEP but the US would not be able to disrupt the process as the US-led multilateral trade mechanism in the Asia-Pacific does not fit many in the region, because in the framework of the RCEP each country will focus not on services provided by the US partnership but on existing industrial advantage which is more attractive to ASEAN countries
As a sign of confidence after the signing of the agreement, stock markets stock soared across the Asia-Pacific rallied on Monday as the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.11% at market close, in Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 2.05%, in South Korea, the Kospi also gained nearly 2% and in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.23%.
